Nana Banana
A confluence of factors, including an unusually severe cold snap at the outset of 2025 and the relentlessly escalating energy demands from the burgeoning data centre industry and cryptocurrency mining operations, precipitated an unwelcome surge in US greenhouse gas emissions. For the first time in three years, the nation witnessed an increase in its output of planet-warming gases, signaling a concerning deviation from recent progress in decarbonization efforts, according to a comprehensive new analysis.
The data, compiled by the Rhodium Group, revealed that last year saw a significant rise in residential natural gas consumption for heating, coupled with a striking 13% increase in coal utilization to satisfy the escalating electricity requirements. Despite a notable acceleration in solar power deployment, overall greenhouse gas emissions climbed by 2.4% after two consecutive years of decline. This uptick notably outpaced the nation’s rate of economic growth, underscoring a decoupling of emissions reductions from economic expansion that challenges the prevailing narrative of green growth. While the report’s authors suggest that the policies of the then-Trump administration did not "meaningfully impact" this specific rise in 2025, they caution that these policy shifts are expected to exert a more pronounced influence on emissions trajectories in the coming years.
Across the colder regions of the United States, where a substantial majority of homes rely on natural gas and other fossil fuels for their primary heating needs, the exceptionally low temperatures experienced during early 2025 triggered a dramatic surge in consumption. Compared with the preceding year, the use of these heating fuels escalated by nearly 7%, placing considerable strain on energy grids and consumer budgets alike. This sharp increase in demand for residential heating directly translated into higher emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.
Compounding this effect was the explosive growth in demand for extra electric power, primarily driven by the relentless expansion of data centres and cryptocurrency mining operations. Regions like Texas and the Ohio Valley, in particular, have become hotbeds for these energy-intensive industries, attracting investments but also placing immense pressure on local and national power grids. The insatiable appetite of these digital infrastructures for electricity, often running 24/7, necessitates a constant and substantial power supply.
This dual pressure—heightened residential heating demand and burgeoning industrial power needs—converged with market dynamics to create a perfect storm. The rising overall demand for power, coupled with persistently higher natural gas prices, led to a significant and somewhat unexpected resurgence in coal use, which jumped by an alarming 13%. Michael Gaffney, lead author of the Rhodium Group report, elaborated on this phenomenon: "The grid decided to meet that additional load this year, in part with renewables, in part with fossil but because of higher natural gas prices, there was some fuel switching that saw marginally more coal than there was in 2024." This "fuel switching" represents a critical economic decision made by power generators, opting for the cheaper, albeit more carbon-intensive, alternative when natural gas becomes prohibitively expensive.
Many energy observers point to the United States’ robust and expanding exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to international markets as a key driver behind the elevated domestic gas prices. As more US-produced natural gas is shipped overseas to meet global demand, the supply available for domestic consumption tightens, inevitably pushing up prices. Jesse Lee, from Climate Power, a prominent US-based environmental advocacy group, articulated this connection: "Higher natural gas prices means that finally, coal, which had been kind of driven to extinction by low natural gas prices, well [gas is] now so expensive that coal’s worthwhile again." He emphasized, "And that’s what is allowing coal to make this comeback." This underscores a complex interplay between global energy markets, domestic policy, and their direct impact on the US energy mix and emissions profile.
The resurgence of coal in 2025 is particularly striking given its sustained decline over the past decade and a half. Since its peak in 2007, coal power generation in the US had plummeted by an astonishing 64%, largely supplanted by cheaper natural gas and, more recently, renewable energy sources. Last year’s increase marks only the second rise in coal consumption in the past decade, raising serious questions about the long-term trajectory of the nation’s energy transition. Furthermore, the report noted a slowdown in the rate of coal plant retirements, as electricity companies opted to delay planned closures to ensure sufficient generating capacity to meet the unprecedented demand. This strategic deferment of retirements further cemented coal’s unexpected, albeit potentially temporary, comeback.
The critical question now is whether 2025’s coal surge is merely an anomaly or the harbinger of a more sustained revival. Michael Gaffney from Rhodium Group firmly believes it’s "more than just a blip." He asserts, "This is a response to the demand growth in the sector, a lot of it is coming from data centres, cryptocurrency operations, other large load customers, and that demand growth is here to stay." This perspective suggests that the underlying drivers of electricity demand—particularly from the digital economy—are structural and enduring, implying continued pressure on the grid and potentially on the carbon intensity of power generation unless significant shifts in energy supply occur. The environmental implications of a sustained coal resurgence are dire, as coal remains the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, significantly exacerbating climate change and contributing to local air pollution.
Amidst these challenges, there was a beacon of progress: solar power experienced a remarkable growth spurt last year, expanding by an impressive 34%. This represents the fastest rate of solar deployment since 2017, reflecting the ongoing maturation of the technology, declining costs, and supportive policies such as the Inflation Reduction Act. The rapid expansion of solar, alongside other renewable energy sources, is crucial for offsetting fossil fuel reliance. However, despite this significant growth, it was insufficient to counterbalance the combined impact of increased heating demand and the colossal energy consumption of data centres and cryptocurrency.
The transport sector continues to hold its position as the single largest source of warming gases in the US. Road traffic volumes increased for the fifth consecutive year, indicating sustained mobility and economic activity. However, emissions from this sector remained virtually flat in 2025. This stabilization is primarily attributable to the accelerating adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles (EVs) on American roads. Hybrids, in particular, demonstrated robust growth, with sales and registrations up by 25% compared to 2024. This trend highlights the transformative potential of vehicle electrification in decoupling transportation from emissions growth, even as overall travel increases.
The political landscape also plays a role in this complex narrative. President Trump had been notably forceful in his determination to roll back the climate-related policies of his predecessor, advocating for increased US extraction and utilization of fossil fuels. The Rhodium analysts who authored this report contend that these policy shifts had minimal immediate impact on the 2025 emissions figures, suggesting a time lag between policy implementation and measurable environmental outcomes.
However, not all observers agree with this assessment. Jesse Lee of Climate Power argues for a more direct link between administration policies and current emissions trends. While acknowledging that "there is a data centre explosion, that is somewhat independent of Trump," Lee contends, "You could argue maybe his policies haven’t all kicked in full blast yet, but I don’t think you can really divorce his natural gas exports and his blind support of AI and data centres from this dynamic that’s driving up emissions." This perspective highlights the interconnectedness of energy policy, economic priorities, and their environmental consequences, suggesting that even indirect support for energy-intensive industries and export-driven gas markets can have profound domestic impacts. The debate over the extent of political influence on 2025’s emissions underscores the ongoing tension between economic growth, energy security, and climate action.
The 2025 emissions report serves as a stark reminder of the multifaceted challenges facing the United States in its quest for decarbonization. The intricate interplay of climatic events, technological advancements, economic forces, and policy decisions creates a volatile and unpredictable path towards climate goals. Addressing the relentless energy demands of the digital economy, while simultaneously accelerating the transition to clean energy and navigating the complexities of global energy markets, will require sustained commitment and innovative strategies to reverse this concerning trend.
George Anjay
atisusanti