Why has Donald Trump attacked Venezuela and taken Maduro?

US President Donald Trump declared on Monday that the United States intends to "run" Venezuela "until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition," a dramatic escalation in the long-standing US pressure campaign against the Maduro government. This assertion follows the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by US forces after a series of targeted strikes within Venezuela. Maduro, along with his wife, was reportedly flown out of the country and faces drug trafficking charges in New York. The strikes and capture come after months of intensified US actions aimed at ousting Maduro, whom the Trump administration accuses of fueling the US drug crisis and facilitating the migration of gang members and convicted criminals.

The roots of Trump’s heightened aggression towards Venezuela can be traced to his persistent blame of Nicolás Maduro for the influx of hundreds of thousands of Venezuelan migrants into the United States. These migrants are part of an estimated eight million Venezuelans who have fled their homeland since 2013, driven by a devastating economic crisis and widespread political repression. Without offering concrete evidence, Trump has repeatedly alleged that Maduro has deliberately "emptied his prisons and insane asylums" and "forced" these inmates to migrate to the US. Beyond immigration concerns, Trump has made combating the flow of illicit drugs, particularly fentanyl and cocaine, into the US a cornerstone of his foreign policy. He has formally designated two Venezuelan criminal organizations, Tren de Aragua and Cartel de los Soles, as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs), controversially claiming that Maduro himself leads the latter. Analysts, however, note that Cartel de los Soles is less of a structured cartel and more of a descriptor for corrupt officials who facilitate drug transit. Trump had previously doubled the reward for information leading to Maduro’s capture and had signaled his intent to designate the Maduro government as an FTO. Maduro has consistently denied leadership of any cartel, framing the US actions as a pretext to depose him and seize control of Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.

The Trump administration’s strategy to exert pressure on the Maduro government began to intensify shortly after the start of Trump’s second term. This escalation included doubling the reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest. In September, US forces commenced operations targeting vessels suspected of transporting drugs from South America to the US. Over thirty such strikes have been conducted in the Caribbean and Pacific since then, resulting in over 110 fatalities. The US justification for these operations rests on the assertion of a non-international armed conflict against alleged drug traffickers conducting irregular warfare against the US. However, numerous legal experts have questioned the legality of these strikes, arguing they do not target lawful military objectives. The initial strike on September 2nd, involving two separate impacts, has drawn particular scrutiny due to the deaths of survivors from the first strike in the subsequent one. A former chief prosecutor for the International Criminal Court suggested to the BBC that the broader US military campaign could be categorized as a "planned, systematic attack against civilians during peacetime." The White House, in response, maintained that its actions were consistent with the laws of armed conflict, aimed at protecting the US from cartels "trying to bring poison to our shores… destroying American lives." In October, Trump authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations within Venezuela and threatened land-based strikes against what he termed "narco-terrorists." He announced the first such strike occurred on December 24th, targeting a "dock area" where drug-laden boats were allegedly being loaded, though details remained scarce. Prior to Maduro’s capture, Trump consistently stated that Maduro "is no friend of the US" and that his departure would be "smart." The economic pressure also intensified with Trump declaring a "total naval blockade" on all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, a critical source of foreign revenue. Concurrently, the US deployed a significant military force to the Caribbean, ostensibly to interdict fentanyl and cocaine shipments to the US. This force has also played a pivotal role in enforcing the naval blockade.

The assertion that Venezuela is flooding the US with drugs is contested by counternarcotic experts. They generally characterize Venezuela as a secondary player in global drug trafficking, primarily serving as a transit route for drugs produced elsewhere. Colombia, its neighbor, is the world’s leading cocaine producer, but most of its output is believed to reach the US via alternative routes, with Venezuela playing a less significant role. A 2020 report by the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) indicated that nearly three-quarters of cocaine destined for the US is trafficked through the Pacific, with only a small fraction arriving via fast boats in the Caribbean. While early US strikes focused on the Caribbean, more recent operations have shifted to the Pacific. In September, Trump informed US military leaders that targeted boats were "stacked up with bags of white powder that’s mostly fentanyl and other drugs, too." Fentanyl, a synthetic opioid fifty times more potent than heroin, has become the primary driver of opioid overdose deaths in the US. On December 15th, Trump signed an executive order designating fentanyl as a "weapon of mass destruction," arguing it was "closer to a chemical weapon than a narcotic." However, fentanyl is predominantly manufactured in Mexico and almost exclusively enters the US via its southern land border. The DEA’s 2025 National Drug Threat Assessment does not identify Venezuela as a country of origin for fentanyl smuggled into the US.

Nicolás Maduro’s ascent to power was closely linked to the left-wing movement led by the late President Hugo Chávez and his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). Maduro, a former bus driver and union leader, succeeded Chávez in 2013 and has held the presidency since. Over the 26 years of Chávez and Maduro’s rule, their party has consolidated control over key state institutions, including the National Assembly, significant portions of the judiciary, and the electoral council. In the 2024 presidential election, Maduro was declared the victor, despite opposition-collected tallies suggesting a landslide win for Edmundo González, the candidate of the main opposition coalition. González had replaced the leading opposition figure, María Corina Machado, on the ballot after she was disqualified from running. Machado, recognized for her "struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy," was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in October. She defied a travel ban to travel to Oslo in December to accept the award, having spent months in hiding. Machado indicated her intention to return to Venezuela, a move that would place her at risk of arrest by Venezuelan authorities who have declared her a "fugitive."

The US naval deployment in the Caribbean is substantial, comprising 15,000 troops and a formidable array of assets, including aircraft carriers, guided-missile destroyers, and amphibious assault ships. Central to this flotilla is the USS Gerald Ford, recognized as the world’s largest aircraft carrier. US helicopters reportedly launched from the USS Gerald Ford prior to US forces seizing an oil tanker off the Venezuelan coast on December 10th. The US stated the tanker was "used to transport sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran," an action Venezuela condemned as "international piracy." Since then, the US has targeted two additional tankers in waters off Venezuela. Following these strikes, Trump declared that the "American armada remains poised in position."

Maduro has long accused the Trump administration of orchestrating his downfall to gain control of Venezuela’s immense oil wealth. This accusation gained traction after Trump, when questioned about the fate of the seized oil tanker and its cargo, remarked, "I assume we’re going to keep the oil." However, US officials have consistently denied that their actions against the Maduro government are motivated by a desire to secure access to Venezuela’s untapped oil reserves. Venezuela possesses the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves, and oil revenue constitutes over half of its government budget. Despite this, oil exports have been severely hampered by sanctions, a lack of investment, and mismanagement within Venezuela’s state-run oil company. In 2023, Venezuela’s crude oil production accounted for only 0.8% of global output, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The country currently exports approximately 900,000 barrels per day, with China being its predominant buyer.