Spain’s commitment to renewable energy may be in doubt

Figueruelas, once a quiet agricultural hub, is rapidly transforming into a beacon of Spain’s green transition, its status recently bolstered by a monumental investment. Ground has broken on the construction of a sprawling gigafactory dedicated to producing batteries for electric vehicles. This ambitious undertaking is a joint venture between the Chinese firm CATL, a global leader in battery technology, and the Netherlands-based automotive giant Stellantis, representing a staggering combined investment of €4 billion ($4.7 billion; £3.5 billion). This colossal foreign direct investment was lauded by Yao Jing, China’s ambassador to Spain, who described it as "one of the biggest Chinese investments Europe has ever seen," underscoring its strategic importance not just for Spain, but for the wider European electric vehicle supply chain.

For Luis Bertol Moreno, the mayor of Figueruelas, the choice of location for such a transformative project was unequivocally logical. "We’re in Aragón, where there’s wind all year round, there are lots of hours of sunshine, and we are surrounded by wind turbines and solar panels," he explains, pointing to the abundant natural resources that make the region an ideal energy hub. "Those [energy sources] will be crucial in generating electricity for the new factory, and I understand that was the key reason for building it here in Figueruelas." The promise of locally sourced, clean energy, combined with existing infrastructure and logistical advantages, made Figueruelas an irresistible proposition for the battery manufacturers.

The factory’s inception and the ongoing expansion of renewable energy capacity across the region serve as a powerful vindication of Spain’s progressive energy model, which has consistently prioritised renewable sources. Just seven years ago, in 2017, renewables contributed a mere third of Spain’s total electricity production. However, by last year, this figure had surged dramatically, with green energy sources representing an impressive 57% of the nation’s electricity mix, a testament to rapid policy implementation and investment. The government’s aspirations are even bolder, aiming for renewables to contribute a formidable 81% of electricity output by 2030, aligning Spain with the most ambitious climate targets in Europe.

Earlier this year, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, a vocal advocate for environmental sustainability, encapsulated his government’s steadfast commitment to this green agenda. In a direct rhetorical counterpoint to former US President Donald Trump’s pro-fossil fuel "Dig, baby, dig" slogan, Sánchez declared, "Green, baby, green," highlighting the multifaceted benefits of renewable energy, from environmental protection to economic development and energy independence. Spain, with its vast stretches of sunny landscapes and wind-swept coastlines and plains, possesses unique geographical advantages that make it an ideal candidate for leading Europe’s renewable energy transition.

However, despite these ambitious strides and the celebratory rhetoric, Spain’s unwavering commitment to renewables has recently come under intense scrutiny, casting a shadow of doubt over its long-term energy strategy. This re-evaluation was largely triggered by a widespread and unsettling blackout on April 28, which plunged homes, businesses, critical government buildings, public transport networks, and educational institutions across Spain and neighbouring Portugal into darkness for several hours. The incident exposed potential vulnerabilities in the national grid, prompting a fierce political debate over the country’s energy mix.

In the immediate aftermath, with the government initially unable to provide a comprehensive explanation for the outage, the energy landscape quickly became a contentious political battleground. Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of the conservative opposition Partido Popular, seized the opportunity to launch a scathing critique of the government’s energy policy, accusing it of "fanaticism" in its pursuit of a green agenda. He suggested that an over-reliance on intermittent renewable sources might have been a contributing factor to the incident, advocating for a significant rethink of the national energy model to ensure greater stability and security. The timing was particularly unfortunate, as just a week prior to the blackout, mainland Spain had recorded a new record for solar generation, with it accounting for 61.5% of the electricity mix at one point, a statistic that opposition figures leveraged to fuel claims of grid instability associated with high renewable penetration.

Yet, both the government and Red Eléctrica, Spain’s national grid operator, have vehemently denied any direct link between the outage and the prevalence of renewable energy sources. Concha Sánchez, head of operations for Red Eléctrica, firmly stated, "We have operated the system with higher renewable rates [previously] with no effect on the security of the system. Definitely, it’s not a question of the rate of renewables at that moment." Ms. Sánchez attributed the blackout to a complex interplay of issues, including an "unknown event" within the system moments before the incident, which reportedly caused anomalous voltage oscillations. However, the definitive cause remains elusive, as Red Eléctrica and the government continue to await conclusive reports on the incident. While a cyber-attack has been repeatedly ruled out, the lingering uncertainty provides ongoing ammunition for political debate and public concern.

In the months following the April incident, Spain’s electricity mix has subtly shifted, revealing a cautious recalibration. There has been an observable increase in reliance on natural gas, a move that reinforces the perception that the country finds itself at a critical energy crossroads. Natural gas, while still a fossil fuel, is often considered a "transition fuel" due to its lower carbon emissions compared to coal and its ability to provide flexible, on-demand power, crucial for balancing the inherent intermittency of renewables. This temporary pivot, however, complicates Spain’s ambitious decarbonisation targets and highlights the challenges of maintaining grid stability during periods of high renewable penetration without adequate storage or alternative baseload power.

Spain’s nuclear industry, which currently contributes approximately 20% of the national electricity, has been particularly vocal since the blackout. Industry representatives have intensified their lobbying efforts, pushing back against the government’s long-standing plans to systematically close the country’s five nuclear power plants between 2027 and 2035. This planned phase-out positions Spain as something of an outlier, given the burgeoning "nuclear renaissance" in many other European countries, which are increasingly viewing nuclear energy as a reliable, carbon-free source of baseload power essential for achieving climate targets.

Ignacio Araluce, president of Foro Nuclear, an influential association representing Spain’s nuclear industry, has been a leading voice in this debate. He asserts that Spain is the only country in the world actively scheduling the closure of operational nuclear plants, a policy he deems imprudent. Araluce argues passionately that nuclear energy provides unparalleled stability and is entirely compatible with the broader green energy transition. "It’s prudent to have a mix of renewables and nuclear energy," he contends, emphasizing the complementary roles of these power sources. While praising renewables for their reliance on natural elements, he points out their inherent limitation: they cannot operate around the clock or when weather conditions are unfavourable. "How can you produce energy in those hours when the renewables are not producing?" he asks rhetorically, immediately offering his solution: "with a source like nuclear, that is not producing CO2, that is producing all hours of the year."

The political opposition staunchly echoes these sentiments, particularly regarding the nuclear shut-down. The conservative Partido Popular and the far-right Vox party have both criticised what they perceive as the government’s inadequate explanation for the April blackout and have consistently advocated for the retention of nuclear power. Vox, for instance, recently described nuclear power as "a crucial source of stability," aligning with the industry’s arguments for energy security and independence. The companies that own the Almaraz plant in south-western Spain, slated to be the first to shut down, have formally requested a three-year extension to its operational life until 2030, a request currently under active governmental consideration. This decision will be a critical indicator of whether Spain’s government is willing to compromise on its green dogma in favour of perceived grid stability.

Concha Sánchez from Red Eléctrica acknowledges that there is significant room for improvement within Spain’s electricity model. She highlights the Iberian peninsula’s relative isolation from the broader European grid, noting that it possesses fewer interconnections compared to most of its EU neighbours. This limited connectivity can reduce the grid’s resilience and flexibility, making it harder to import or export power to balance supply and demand fluctuations. Crucially, Ms. Sánchez also points to energy storage as a pressing issue. "While we have taken a good path when it comes to renewable installation, we cannot say the same regarding storage," she admits. "We need to foster storage installation." Adequate storage solutions, such as large-scale batteries, pumped hydro, or green hydrogen facilities, are vital for harnessing intermittent renewable energy and delivering it reliably when needed, thus mitigating the very concerns raised by the opposition.

Adding another layer of complexity and uncertainty to Spain’s energy future is its volatile political landscape. The Socialist-led coalition government has been embroiled in a series of corruption scandals, and its parliamentary majority appears to have fractured in recent weeks, raising the distinct possibility of a snap general election in the coming months. Polls suggest that a right-wing government, potentially a coalition between the Partido Popular and Vox, would be the likely outcome. Such a change in leadership would almost certainly precipitate a significant shift in energy policy, placing less emphasis on the rapid deployment of renewables and advocating for a partial return to more traditional, stable energy sources, including a re-evaluation of the nuclear phase-out and continued reliance on natural gas. This political instability introduces a considerable element of risk for investors in the renewable sector and could slow the pace of Spain’s energy transition.

Despite these national political and energy debates, the renewable transition continues on the ground. For Figueruelas, in the heart of Aragón, this means more than just the promise of cheap, clean energy; it translates directly into unprecedented investment and economic revitalisation. The town’s population, currently just over 1,000 residents, is poised for dramatic growth, with 2,000 Chinese workers scheduled to arrive to aid in the construction of the new battery plant. Once operational, the facility is expected to create up to 35,000 indirect jobs, profoundly transforming the local economy. Manuel Martín, a local resident, articulates the widespread optimism: "These kinds of investments revitalise the area, they revitalise the construction sector, hostelry. And the energy is free – it just depends on the sun and the wind." For Figueruelas, the future, powered by renewables, still looks undeniably bright, even as the national commitment faces its toughest test yet.