Ramos Leo
The policy announcement is widely regarded by Reform insiders as the flagship initiative of its recent conference and is being presented as potentially their most impactful tax policy leading up to the general election. The current personal allowance, the threshold below which individuals do not pay income tax, stands at £12,570. Reform’s proposal would see this figure rise by £2,430, an increase that the party estimates would save most taxpayers approximately £500 per year. Furthermore, it projects that 2.9 million people would be entirely removed from the income tax system, a move designed to alleviate the financial burden on lower and middle-income earners. Jenrick is expected to emphasize this point in his conference speech, noting that 1.3 million people were drawn into paying tax last year alone due to the personal allowance being frozen since 2021. He will highlight that Labour’s stated intention to freeze it until 2031 constitutes a "betrayal" that costs a full-time worker on the minimum wage over £750 a year and will even lead to the state pension being taxed for the first time, which he described as "a disgrace." While the immediate goal is £15,000, Reform’s manifesto from earlier in 2024 indicated a longer-term ambition to lift the threshold to £20,000, a goal Jenrick is expected to reiterate to party activists.
However, the unveiling of this key policy coincided with significant scrutiny for the party. Robert Jenrick addressed concerns regarding two senior Reform aides who are currently under investigation by the party following an undercover broadcast by Channel 4 News. The broadcast, a result of filming by Verbatim Investigations, raised serious allegations concerning claims about funding. Dan Jukes, a senior aide to Nigel Farage, and James Orr, Reform’s head of policy, were reportedly filmed suggesting methods to circumvent electoral law in order to secure foreign party donations, with one alleged proposed donation totalling £500,000. Electoral law in the UK stipulates that donors to political parties must be either UK registered voters or companies registered within the UK. Jenrick confirmed that Nigel Farage had acted swiftly upon learning of the allegations, leading to the suspension of both individuals. Farage himself issued a statement on Friday, vehemently denying any wrongdoing by his party, asserting they had "done nothing wrong" and had taken "no illegal money. In fact no money was taken at all." Dan Jukes has also denied any wrongdoing and stated his intention to step away from politics to "clear my name." James Orr, an associate professor of Philosophy of Religion at Cambridge University’s Faculty of Divinity, told Sky News he would cooperate fully with the party’s internal investigation. In response to the Channel 4 News and Verbatim report, Cambridge University confirmed it was "looking into these matters." Jenrick further stated on the Today programme that Reform had sought legal advice and did not believe it had committed any transgressions. Despite these assertions, both the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats have formally reported Reform UK to the Metropolitan Police. The Electoral Commission has also acknowledged the situation, stating it is "considering all relevant information, in line with our regulatory remit" and is in contact with the police regarding the allegations.
Beyond the immediate tax relief, Reform UK has outlined a comprehensive strategy to fund this ambitious policy. The party estimates that increasing the tax-free threshold to £15,000 would incur a cost of £17.7 billion in the first year, escalating to £21 billion by the fifth year. To offset this, Reform proposes a substantial £80 billion in public spending cuts, which Jenrick stated would be achieved by "cutting out the waste" across government departments. A significant portion of these proposed savings, an estimated £50 billion, is targeted at welfare spending. While half of the UK’s £353 billion welfare budget is allocated to the state pension, Reform has explicitly stated its commitment not to cut this proportion. Instead, the bulk of the welfare savings would come from two primary areas: ceasing benefit payments to individuals who are not British citizens and implementing measures to assist people currently out of work due to mental health conditions in returning to employment. Jenrick underscored this approach, stating that the UK should "stop paying foreign aid to rich countries" and prioritize "looking after British people first." He clarified that while "disaster relief" would continue, the "vast majority of that budget should be spent on the priorities of our own people."
Further financial savings are expected from other areas of public expenditure. Reform hopes to generate £10 billion by scrapping net-zero programmes. Jenrick argued that, given the UK’s contribution of only 1% of global emissions, it is illogical to pursue decarbonization at a faster pace than other nations, as this approach is "just impoverishing our own people." An additional £8 billion is projected to be saved by reducing the number of civil servants across government. Finally, the party aims to raise £7.1 billion by capping the foreign aid budget, aligning with their "British people first" philosophy.
The current personal allowance of £12,570 has been frozen since 2021, a policy decision that, in an inflationary environment, leads to "fiscal drag." This phenomenon effectively pulls more people into paying income tax or into higher tax bands as their wages increase to keep pace with inflation, even if their real income remains stagnant or decreases. Anyone earning more than £100,000 currently sees their personal allowance gradually reduced, with £1 lost for every £2 earned above this threshold. The political impact of this freeze has been acknowledged across the spectrum. For example, Andy Burnham, a prominent political figure, had previously highlighted the "frustration" among his constituents in Makerfield regarding the frozen allowance, noting how it had "lodged in my mind." While acknowledging the financial constraints, he suggested that "all of this would be looked at" in an upcoming Budget, albeit recognizing that any change would be "difficult given the financial circumstances." Reform UK’s promise to unfreeze and significantly raise the personal allowance positions them in direct contrast to the current government’s policy and Labour’s proposed continuation of the freeze, aiming to resonate with voters feeling the pinch of increased taxation through fiscal drag.
The policy, set to be formally announced in Jenrick’s conference speech later today, serves as a clear statement of intent from Reform UK, emphasizing a commitment to putting more money directly into the pockets of working individuals. Jenrick is expected to articulate his vision as Chancellor, stating: "As chancellor, I will wake each morning with one purpose. To make Britain a better place to be a worker than it was the day before." This pledge, combined with their proposed deep spending cuts, forms the core of Reform UK’s economic strategy as they head towards the next general election.
George Anjay
Nakalama John
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