Easter holidaymakers switching from Dubai to Spain as flights fill up

The widespread unrest has led to mass disruption for passenger flights across the Middle East, with official warnings advising against non-essential travel to large parts of the region, including the United Arab Emirates. This climate of uncertainty has triggered a sharp downturn in holiday bookings for the Middle East, as well as countries traditionally popular with British tourists but situated geographically close to the affected zones, such as Turkey, Cyprus, and Egypt.

In stark contrast, destinations in Southern Europe and further afield are experiencing a boom. Bookings for Portugal, Italy, and Spain have seen a notable uplift, alongside long-haul favorites in the Caribbean, Mauritius, and the United States. Many major airports are reporting that flights to these alternative destinations are filling up at an accelerated pace compared to previous years, highlighting the rapid reorientation of travel plans.

The severity of the situation for Middle Eastern routes was underscored on Tuesday when British Airways (BA) announced the suspension of several key Middle East routes until June. Citing "the continuing uncertainty of the situation in the Middle East and airspace instability," the airline confirmed it had temporarily cancelled flights to Dubai, Bahrain, Tel Aviv, and Amman in Jordan, with suspensions extending up to and including May 31st. This move by a major carrier sends a strong signal to the market and further complicates travel to the region.

Travel industry experts are now issuing warnings regarding the diminishing availability of flights and holiday packages. This scarcity is a direct consequence of two converging factors: travelers whose original trips were cancelled due to the conflict are now scrambling to rebook, and those who had yet to finalize their Easter plans are simultaneously gravitating towards the same perceived safe havens.

Neil Swanson, managing director of TUI UK and Ireland, articulated the prevailing sentiment among British travelers, noting they are actively seeking "reassuring alternatives to avoid travel through the Middle East." He explained that holidaymakers are gravitating towards "familiar, easy-to-reach" destinations. This trend has translated into significantly higher demand for Spain, Portugal, Greece, and the increasingly popular Cape Verde islands off the coast of West Africa. Swanson also highlighted particularly strong demand for long-haul flights to the Caribbean, with the Dominican Republic and Jamaica standing out, as well as exotic locales like Phuket in Thailand and India’s Goa.

Data from Thomas Cook provides a quantitative insight into this shift, reporting a remarkable 42% increase in bookings to Portugal over the two weeks leading up to March 13th. This represents the most substantial upward shift among the destinations covered by the operator, closely followed by the Balearic Islands, which saw a 40% rise, and the Canary Islands, experiencing a 16% increase. While most UK package holiday providers and travel agents opted not to disclose specific figures, their anecdotal reports consistently echoed these trends.

However, TravelSupermarket offered further statistical backing, sharing data on online search interest that demonstrates a "clear surge" for European and Atlantic destinations, coupled with a discernible decline for the Middle East. Their figures reveal that searches for the Dominican Republic, Antigua, Cape Verde, and Italy’s picturesque Tuscany region have all more than doubled between March 1st and 11th, when compared to the preceding 11-day period, indicating a dramatic pivot in consumer interest.

Conversely, online package holiday provider On The Beach has openly acknowledged a significant slowdown in demand following the onset of conflict in the Middle East, particularly affecting popular destinations such as Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt. Steve Heapy, the boss of Jet2, echoed this concern in an interview with Travel Weekly, stating that people were actively avoiding booking trips to Cyprus and Turkey, and that "cancellations are up" for these areas.

While there are no current UK government warnings against travel to mainland Greece, advice for Cyprus cautions that terrorist attacks cannot be ruled out and that "regional escalation poses significant security risks and has led to travel disruption." Similarly, while the UK government advises against travel to certain parts of Egypt and Turkey, these typically do not include the main tourist hotspots. For Turkey, the specific advice warns against travel within 10km of the border with Syria.

Gloria Guevara, president of the World Travel & Tourism Council, provided a nuanced perspective on Turkey, telling the BBC that while "demand for Turkey remains high, although some tourists are understandably delaying travel there while waiting to see what happens in the Middle East." This suggests a degree of cautious optimism rather than an outright abandonment of the destination.

Dame Irene Hays, the owner and chair of Hays Travel, a prominent independent travel agent, conveyed her lack of surprise at the fall in bookings for affected regions during a segment on the BBC’s Today programme. "At the moment, we have a dampening of people booking and an increase in people wanting to change the holiday or perhaps cancel," she explained. Dame Irene identified destinations requiring transfers in the Middle East – such as the Maldives, India, and Mauritius – as the "biggest losers" in this scenario, as travelers seek to bypass potential transit risks. Conversely, she confirmed that short-haul destinations like Spain and Portugal have emerged as "the winners" from this shift. Despite the current challenges, Dame Irene expressed confidence in the industry’s resilience, citing its ability to navigate past crises like ash clouds and the Covid pandemic. She firmly believes that "people will always want to do the Maldives, Mauritius and India… I believe it will come back." This perspective suggests that while immediate booking patterns are influenced by geopolitical events, the long-term appeal of these destinations remains intact. It’s worth noting the distinction: while direct bookings to Mauritius and India (Goa) might be up from certain markets or via alternative flight paths, those relying on transfers through currently volatile Middle Eastern hubs are indeed seeing a decline.

Looking ahead, despite these immediate disruptions, the broader outlook for the travel industry remains robust. Last year was recorded as the busiest ever for flights, according to the UK Civil Aviation Authority’s latest aviation trends report, and many industry bodies anticipate that 2026 will surpass those totals. This underlying demand indicates a strong desire for travel that is simply being redirected.

One major transatlantic carrier revealed that many of its flights to the US during the upcoming Easter period are already operating at near-full capacity, leaving little room for last-minute bookings or for travelers looking to switch their plans. The Manchester Airport Group (MAG), which oversees East Midlands, Stansted, and Manchester Airports, corroborated this trend, reporting that flights are running significantly fuller than they were a year ago. A spokesperson for MAG noted that flight capacity has climbed from approximately 80% to almost 90%, severely limiting the scope for passengers to pivot away from the Middle East to these popular European and long-haul routes. Passenger numbers across MAG airports are projected to increase by 10–20% compared with last year, with Dublin, Barcelona, Paris, Alicante, and Copenhagen all experiencing substantial rises in demand.

However, the ripple effects of geopolitical events extend beyond booking patterns. There has been a dramatic surge in oil and jet fuel prices in the wake of reported US and Israeli air strikes on Iran. This increase in operational costs is already translating into higher fares for consumers. Airlines such as Qantas, Air New Zealand, and Thai Airways have confirmed they will be increasing their fares in response to these rising fuel prices. British Airways owner IAG, however, stated it had proactively bought fuel in advance, providing some protection against short-term fare increases over the next few months.

Ultimately, while the ongoing conflict is undeniably a "concern for many," affordability remains a top priority for holidaymakers, according to Seamus McCauley, head of public affairs at Holiday Extras. "As a result, we expect holidaymakers will head to places where they can get more for their money and experience warm weather in locations far from these tensions," he concluded. This sentiment underscores the dual drivers of safety and value that are currently shaping global travel patterns for the upcoming Easter season and beyond.